Do you have recommended resources for new filing notifications in Asian markets? To stay up to date with company filings? Markets like Japan (EDINET), Korea (DART), Hong Kong or Singapore, etc. I’ve searched around a bunch on the respective websites, but can’t seem to find an RSS or email alert option like we have on EDGAR. The equivalent would be http://www.investegate.co.uk/ in the UK or http://www.investorpa.com/ for ASX/NZX, although I would much prefer direct via the exchange. Any thoughts?
You can find filing notifications on each of the stock exchange websites:
– Singapore: http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/company_disclosure/company_announcements
– Tokyo: https://www.release.tdnet.info/index_e.html
– Hong Kong: http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/mainindex/SEHK_LISTEDCO_DATETIME_TODAY.HTM
– Korea: https://global.krx.co.kr/contents/GLB/05/0501/0501040000/GLB0501040000.jsp
As far as I know there is no good way to get the filings onto RSS or e-mail alerts. The data is just too messy.
I know that Quamnet in Hong Kong and Shareinvestor.com in Singapore have news sections that pick up company announcements for SGX/HKEX, but I am not sure whether you can redirect these feeds to RSS/e-mail.
If you could go back in time and tell your younger self something about investing, what point in time would you go back to and what would you tell yourself?
I wish I would have started investing much earlier. My advice to myself would be: take whatever money you have and invest in the most mispriced stocks you can find. Sign up for VIC and read everything you can. Fail over and over again. Read books to understand what might have gone wrong. Ability to outperform is proportional to the amount of actual investing you do, not how many books you read
What resources (books, blogs etc.) would you recommend to educate oneself on macro?
A few that I thoroughly enjoyed:
– Alchemy of Finance by George Soros
– Practical Speculation by Victor Niederhoffer
– Our Brave New World by Charles Gave & team
– Kindleberger: Manias, Panics and Crashes
– Tomorrow’s Gold by Marc Faber
– The Volatility Machine by Michael Pettis
– More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby
Many good interviews on Real Vision TV: realvisiontv.com. Check out the John Burbank, Julian Brigden, Jeffrey Gundlach and Mark Hart videos.
Watch every video you can find of David Tepper and Stan Druckenmiller on YouTube/CNBC/Bloomberg. They understand how to invest.
A few articles worth reading:
– The Druckenmiller interview from Barron’s 1988
– George Soros’s paper in the Journal of Economic Methodology: http://soros.3cdn.net/4366be3db10ef738e5_s3m6bhtev.pdf
When it comes to particular situations, just read macro research papers. History will tell you what the relevant base rate probabilities are.
Seems like this is a big gap in info, right? How do you keep track of company filings/notification/news from the official exchanges without RSS feeds or email alerts?
Americans have no idea how lucky they are, having access to SEC filings, earnings call transcripts etc. Even with Bloomberg or Reuters Knowledge, information about listed companies in Asia is scarce. It’s hard to get an information advantage over locals. So you need to have personal contacts with IR or management. Google Alerts helps for companies in Hong Kong/Singapore/Japan, but not so much for Asia EM
I’ve seen you post on the attractiveness of Vietnam before. Thoughts on due diligence on individual names, with lots of companies lacking English financials? And any small-cap HQ names you like?
You have to meet them. Corporate governance is just as bad as in China and Korea, so better be careful. Most of the companies I’m familiar with are large caps.
I know small cap fund managers in Ho Chi Minh City, perhaps it would be best to talk to them? Just DM me via Twitter and I’ll forward you contact details. My handle: @Fritz_100
I would be curious to hear your thoughts on how one’s portfolio should be positioned for RMB deval? How would you play it directly outside of the obvious short CNH?
Whether RMB will depreciate is a political decision. Fake invoices and repayment of external debt are the two major ways to buy get hold of foreign currency. PBOC can crack down on the use of fake invoices. It can also use its FX reserves to buy the foreign currency needed to repay the $400-600bn or so of external debt. Depositors are not panicking yet given stable RMB deposit growth and stable interbank rate. So the near-term pressure to devalue the currency may not that big.
At the same time, the impact of FX reserve drawdown on liquidity ensures that monetary policy will not be expansionary. So the long-term outcome is likely to be debt deflation and slower growth. The currency is overvalued on a real effective exchange rate basis, and a devaluation of 40-50% would improve the country’s competitiveness. My guess is that the PBOC will devalue the currency once unemployment rises to worrisome levels. A devaluation is also more likely once external debt has been repaid, in my view.
Ways to bet on a lower RMB:
– CNH: You run the risk of being squeezed by PBOC tightening CNH liquidity
– Out-of-the-money CNH puts: Popular trade and I’m not sure risk-reward is there any more
– Shorting Chinese tourism stocks: a weaker RMB would reduce consumer spending on foreign travel
– Shorting Japanese stocks: Rest of Asia is now 345% of Japan’s GDP compared with 63% in 1996. Japanese stocks will be impacted greatly by a 40-50% devaluation. Then again you are fighting against negative interest rates.
– Shorting global luxury stocks: We’ve already seen some adjustments but there may still be opportunity. China represented 45% of luxury goods consumption but only 15% of global GDP a few years ago. This is clearly unsustainable.
– Shorting global auto stocks with exposure to China: China represents 40% of global auto profits, despite being only 15% of global GDP. A correction in the Chinese auto cycle is way overdue.
– Shorting mining capex proxies: investments into iron ore, copper, etc are a multiple of what they used to be 10 years ago and in my view the capex has nowhere to go but down. Australian banks, mining-related industrial companies, heavy machinery, etc may be worth looking into.
– Shorting Asian banks with exposure to China: the NPL cycle has clearly turned upwards, and unlike state-owned Chinese banks, foreign banks will have to recognise losses from their loans into China.
fritz – any thoughts on Liberty Trip Advisor? it’s gotten hit hard this year.
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